They are counting on “The Bradley Effect” to propel Sen. John McCain to the presidency.
A Republican pollster spoke openly about the probabilty of this happening at a luncheon for California Republican delegates. This is what he said in an interview with the conservative Washington Times:
I do believe there is a Bradly effect in polling this year — particularly in California and in the Northeast. Almost every exit poll from Ohio eastward through New Jersey and up the shoreline over-estimated Obama’s support. Now remember, these are not telephone polls. They are EXIT polls of actual voters. I think there is about a 2% lie factor at work — particularly among blue collar white voters that don’t want to admit for whatever reason that they aren’t voting for Obama.
Slate.com’s Jacob Weisberg wrote an excellent article about how racism could play a deciding factor if Senator Obama ends up losing:
Five percent surely understates the reality. In the Pennsylvania primary, one in six white voters told exit pollsters race was a factor in his or her decision. Seventy-five percent of those people voted for Clinton. You can do the math: 12 percent of the Pennsylvania primary electorate acknowledged that it didn’t vote for Barack Obama in part because he is African-American. And that’s what Democrats in a Northeastern(ish) state admit openly. The responses in Ohio and even New Jersey were dispiritingly similar.