Category Archives: Polling

My invitation to the right-wing media

If I was a Republican and sat and watched the absolute destruction of my fantastical dreams of defeating President Obama and overtaking the Senate, I’d be pretty angry at the media that sold me the faulty stories.

Last night when it was clear the president would win, I couldn’t help but turn the TV to Fox News. I needed to know how they’d take the news that everything they’ve been reporting was wrong. I watched as Karl Rove attempted to prove on a piece of paper that his Ohio math was more factual than the calculations of a roomful of number crunchers. This moment of disbelief in the real-world facts epitomized the last four years of the Republican Party and its Republican media machine–an entire industry based on gut and emotion instead of facts and data.

While us on the left visited RealClearPolitics.com daily and saw consistent Obama leads in all the swing states, including Florida at the end, those on the right obsessed over the gut feelings of Rove, who predicted, based on his experience with George W. Bush, that Mitt Romney would win. And the GOP media also focused on the predictions of pundit Michael Barone, who proudly wrote that Romney would win, 315-223–almost the exact opposite of math god Nate Silver at 538, who predicted a 313-223, Obama victory. (By the way Silver nailed each state in his final electoral map.)

If I was a Fox News watcher this morning, I wouldn’t trust a word coming out of any of the newscasters’ mouths from here on until they make a fundamental change in how they conduct business.

Some facts Fox News might need to fix immediately in order to save some credibility:

  • America likes Obama. His approval rating has been around 50 percent leading up to the end of his first term. Bill Clinton, before he was re-elected, had an approval rating hovering in the 40s with a low-point at 37 percent.
  • Obama’s healthcare plan is not a “government takeover.” It’s a practical plan based on the private markets. Simple. Basic. Capitalistic.
  • Most Americans believe in science. Man-caused climate change is real, not a theory.
  • Most Americans don’t blame Obama for the economy. Most of the blame still falls on President George W. Bush. Don’t get me wrong. The president still has the bulk of economic responsibility to get the country growing faster, but he was handed a really difficult task. Oh yeah, Congress is a bit responsible too since they pass the damn laws.
  • On the economy, it’s not as weak as Fox and right-wing pundits claim. Could it be growing faster? Yes. But is it growing? Yes, unlike the economies in Europe. The United States is no longer in a recession and not really a risk of falling into another one. If Obama and Congress do NOTHING the next four years, economists expect 12 million jobs to be added.

Most importantly though, last night proved one thing that I’ve been thinking for a while: Fox and right wingers continue to use “Americans” and “American people” to refer to the electorate. Romney would have won the election if Fox News’s America — white, middle-class men — would have been the only ones to vote. But that isn’t America anymore–Obama won with the lowest percentage of the white vote in the history of this country.

America is different now. America is darker. America also includes working women. It also includes a majority of people who support gay rights. America is like Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York City, Chicago. It is not like Coeur d’Alene, Idaho.

Last night after the election was well over, I sent this tweet:

Republicans, the message is this: America has changed. We are minorities, women, gays, science believers. Adapt or be irrelevant.

The two-party system in this country is essential. Just like this country wouldn’t survive if we moved all the way to Ron Paul’s right, we wouldn’t survive if we moved all the way to MoveOn.org’s left. Ideological battles are necessary and helpful and keep the country on a healthy balance.

But the battles fought by the right-wing media the last four years was not a healthy one. It was a battle based on extreme ideology and an appeal to the basest of Republican thought. This must change.

Fox News employs the sensible Juan Williams. Maybe it’s time to give him a larger role. Maybe it’s time for them to say goodbye to their fear-mongers. Keep Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity and we’ll keep Rachel Maddow, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. They are healthy for political dialogue. But do away with your demagogues: Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Karl Rove.

Join us, right wing. Join the fact-based world. Join the Americans who re-elected Obama. We need you. Your viewers and readers need you.

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Regarding enthusiasm for Obama and the Pew poll

A new Pew Research Center poll came out today showing Mitt Romney holding a 4-point national lead among likely voters over President Obama. The key term here is “likely voters.” Among registered voters, Obama and Romney are tied at 46 percent. The difference, according to Pew, is that Romney voters are 15 percent more enthusiastic about the campaign.

This idea that Romney supporters are more enthused than Obama supporters definitely makes sense.

Sure, Obama has probably accomplished more in his 45 months as president than most first-term presidents ever have. And, in a decade, historians will look back and write about how his actions when taking over the White House saved the country from falling into a second Great Depression.

But I do find it hard to be enthusiastic about three and a half years of Obama having to fight and scrap his way for any progress on anything, regardless of how big or small the action.

Not even a basic jobs bill meant to repair the country’s roads and provide extended unemployment benefits without adding to the deficit — the type of bill that used to pass regardless of who was in the White House and regardless of which party dominated on Capitol Hill — could be brought up for a vote in the House and the Democrats couldn’t break a filibuster in the Senate (50 votes were not enough).

(Speaking of filibusters, the Republicans have filibustered more bills and Obama appointees in the last 21 months than a Senate has in the history of the country.)

It is a jobs bill that could “raise GDP by 1.5 percent before any multiplier effect.”

It’s the same bill as his campaign’s jobs plan, which, if passed, would generate 1.1 million more jobs than Romney’s plan, according to independent analysis.

Plus I believe Obama wouldn’t hurtle the country into another Middle East war like Romney seems intent on doing (who would he attack first, Iran or Syria?).

Most importantly, Obama would probably have a little more leverage to tackle climate change without worrying about re-election.

Obama’s greatest domestic accomplishment, aside from the stimulus bill that took the United States off the fiscal cliff, is the passage of Obamacare, a bill neither left-wing Democrats or any Republican liked. The piece of legislation, which is based off Romney’s Massachusetts legislation, which is based off President Nixon‘s ideas for healthcare reform, is solid change, but not what most of us on the left wanted. We wanted single-payer. We believe healthcare is a right, not a privilege. Hell, we would have been happy with a public option, or Medicare for all. But we didn’t even get that.

Then we see President Obama using drones to kill suspected terrorists in frightening numbers.

It’s hard to be enthused when we disagree with so much that Obama’s done or see how much he has been unable to accomplish?

Meanwhile, Romeny is running against a chair, the greatest actual application of the Rorschach Test in the history of American politics. Republicans have been able to use that chair and project their greatest fears on the president:

“He wants to make America like Europe.” “He’s instituted a government takeover of healthcare.” “He wants to take away your guns.” “He wants to take away your hard-earned money and give it to black and Mexican people who refuse to work.” “He’s an Islamic-black nationalist who honors Hitler and Stalin and wants to start jihad in the United States.”

If this is the common Republican view regarding the president no wonder they’re pumped about defeating him, even though none of it is true.

The reason I will still vote for Obama? I think of what the Republican Party stands for and am frightened. The Republican Party doesn’t believe in science. To them, climate change is “fake” and melting ice caps are nothing to worry about. There is such a thing as “legitimate rape” and the female body naturally fights off sperm women don’t want. “Energy” means drill, baby, drill and tear those solar panels down from the White House.

Business regulations mean “let us fuck the consumer in the name of money.”

What would drones look like in the hands of Romney or his advisers, who would most likely be neocons from the Bush era? What would our energy policy look like when we’re reaching a tipping point in climate change? What would the economy look like when it returns to unpaid tax cuts that benefit mostly wealthy people? What would it look like when Romney gives the banks the leeway to make the same bets that put the economy in the situation they put it in in October 2008?

Simply put, this, defeating the GOP, is what motivates me to vote for the president. I’m sure the Pew poll didn’t take this feeling into account.

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