Tag Archives: polls

Regarding enthusiasm for Obama and the Pew poll

A new Pew Research Center poll came out today showing Mitt Romney holding a 4-point national lead among likely voters over President Obama. The key term here is “likely voters.” Among registered voters, Obama and Romney are tied at 46 percent. The difference, according to Pew, is that Romney voters are 15 percent more enthusiastic about the campaign.

This idea that Romney supporters are more enthused than Obama supporters definitely makes sense.

Sure, Obama has probably accomplished more in his 45 months as president than most first-term presidents ever have. And, in a decade, historians will look back and write about how his actions when taking over the White House saved the country from falling into a second Great Depression.

But I do find it hard to be enthusiastic about three and a half years of Obama having to fight and scrap his way for any progress on anything, regardless of how big or small the action.

Not even a basic jobs bill meant to repair the country’s roads and provide extended unemployment benefits without adding to the deficit — the type of bill that used to pass regardless of who was in the White House and regardless of which party dominated on Capitol Hill — could be brought up for a vote in the House and the Democrats couldn’t break a filibuster in the Senate (50 votes were not enough).

(Speaking of filibusters, the Republicans have filibustered more bills and Obama appointees in the last 21 months than a Senate has in the history of the country.)

It is a jobs bill that could “raise GDP by 1.5 percent before any multiplier effect.”

It’s the same bill as his campaign’s jobs plan, which, if passed, would generate 1.1 million more jobs than Romney’s plan, according to independent analysis.

Plus I believe Obama wouldn’t hurtle the country into another Middle East war like Romney seems intent on doing (who would he attack first, Iran or Syria?).

Most importantly, Obama would probably have a little more leverage to tackle climate change without worrying about re-election.

Obama’s greatest domestic accomplishment, aside from the stimulus bill that took the United States off the fiscal cliff, is the passage of Obamacare, a bill neither left-wing Democrats or any Republican liked. The piece of legislation, which is based off Romney’s Massachusetts legislation, which is based off President Nixon‘s ideas for healthcare reform, is solid change, but not what most of us on the left wanted. We wanted single-payer. We believe healthcare is a right, not a privilege. Hell, we would have been happy with a public option, or Medicare for all. But we didn’t even get that.

Then we see President Obama using drones to kill suspected terrorists in frightening numbers.

It’s hard to be enthused when we disagree with so much that Obama’s done or see how much he has been unable to accomplish?

Meanwhile, Romeny is running against a chair, the greatest actual application of the Rorschach Test in the history of American politics. Republicans have been able to use that chair and project their greatest fears on the president:

“He wants to make America like Europe.” “He’s instituted a government takeover of healthcare.” “He wants to take away your guns.” “He wants to take away your hard-earned money and give it to black and Mexican people who refuse to work.” “He’s an Islamic-black nationalist who honors Hitler and Stalin and wants to start jihad in the United States.”

If this is the common Republican view regarding the president no wonder they’re pumped about defeating him, even though none of it is true.

The reason I will still vote for Obama? I think of what the Republican Party stands for and am frightened. The Republican Party doesn’t believe in science. To them, climate change is “fake” and melting ice caps are nothing to worry about. There is such a thing as “legitimate rape” and the female body naturally fights off sperm women don’t want. “Energy” means drill, baby, drill and tear those solar panels down from the White House.

Business regulations mean “let us fuck the consumer in the name of money.”

What would drones look like in the hands of Romney or his advisers, who would most likely be neocons from the Bush era? What would our energy policy look like when we’re reaching a tipping point in climate change? What would the economy look like when it returns to unpaid tax cuts that benefit mostly wealthy people? What would it look like when Romney gives the banks the leeway to make the same bets that put the economy in the situation they put it in in October 2008?

Simply put, this, defeating the GOP, is what motivates me to vote for the president. I’m sure the Pew poll didn’t take this feeling into account.

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Republicans counting on racism to defeat Obama

They are counting on “The Bradley Effect” to propel Sen. John McCain to the presidency.

A Republican pollster spoke openly about the probabilty of this happening at a luncheon for California Republican delegates. This is what he said in an interview with the conservative Washington Times:

I do believe there is a Bradly effect in polling this year — particularly in California and in the Northeast. Almost every exit poll from Ohio eastward through New Jersey and up the shoreline over-estimated Obama’s support. Now remember, these are not telephone polls. They are EXIT polls of actual voters. I think there is about a 2% lie factor at work — particularly among blue collar white voters that don’t want to admit for whatever reason that they aren’t voting for Obama.

Slate.com’s Jacob Weisberg wrote an excellent article about how racism could play a deciding factor if Senator Obama ends up losing:

Five percent surely understates the reality. In the Pennsylvania primary, one in six white voters told exit pollsters race was a factor in his or her decision. Seventy-five percent of those people voted for Clinton. You can do the math: 12 percent of the Pennsylvania primary electorate acknowledged that it didn’t vote for Barack Obama in part because he is African-American. And that’s what Democrats in a Northeastern(ish) state admit openly. The responses in Ohio and even New Jersey were dispiritingly similar.

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